Donald Trump Ousts Maduro, US Gov't Takes Control of Venezuela

Executive Summary

On January 3, 2026, the geopolitical landscape of South America was fundamentally altered by Operation Southern Spear, a United States military intervention that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro Moros and his spouse, Cilia Flores. The operation, justified by the U.S. administration under narco-terrorism charges, marks the end of the Maduro regime and initiates a complex transition period under temporary U.S. administration. The designated Venezuelan leadership, composed of 2025 Nobel Peace Prize laureate María Corina Machado and President-elect Edmundo González Urrutia, is poised to form a transitional government. 

However, the path forward is fraught with significant challenges, including intense international legal debate over the intervention's legitimacy, the critical need for security sector reform to dismantle entrenched "chavista" networks, and the monumental task of rebuilding a collapsed economy, beginning with the nation's ruined oil industry. The success of this transition hinges on navigating these legal, security, and economic risks while establishing a stable, democratic political order.

Operation Southern Spear

The strategic deadlock in Venezuela was shattered by a lightning military strike authorized by U.S. President Donald Trump, representing the culmination of a six-month pressure campaign that included a naval blockade.

Tactical Execution and Capture

The operation commenced at approximately 2:00 a.m. VET on January 3, 2026, with a coordinated bombardment by around 150 aircraft targeting key military installations.

• Objective: The primary goal was "functional decapitation"—severing the regime's leadership from its security forces by neutralizing command-and-control centers.

• Air Strikes: The initial wave targeted radar installations, antennas, military hangars, and airbases, including La Carlota in Caracas, La Guaira, and Miranda.

• Ground Raid: Amidst the bombardment, an elite Army unit, Delta Force, conducted a precision raid on the Fuerte Tiuna military complex, where Maduro and Cilia Flores were residing. Intelligence reports indicated that U.S. forces had spent weeks tracking Maduro's "behavioral habits," including his dietary and sleeping arrangements.

• Confirmation: By 4:21 a.m. ET, President Trump confirmed the success of the mission, stating that Maduro and Flores had been "captured and flown out of the country."

U.S. Justification and Judicial Indictments

Following the extraction, the U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi announced that the couple would be prosecuted in the Southern District of New York based on a 2020 narco-terrorism case with newly added charges.

The Trump administration justified the raid under Article II of the U.S. Constitution, citing the president's inherent authority to protect American citizens from the "extraordinary threat" posed by what it termed a state-sponsored criminal enterprise. This legal theory posits that the Maduro government was a "narcoterrorist" organization that had forfeited its sovereignty by engaging in international crimes.

The indictments allege that since 1999, the defendants abused their public positions to form the "Cartel of the Suns, a narco-terrorism enterprise that partnered with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) to flood the United States with cocaine.

Defendant	Key Charges	Primary Allegation
Nicolás Maduro	Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, and Possession of Machineguns.	Leading the Cartel of the Suns to transport thousands of tons of cocaine into the U.S.
Cilia Flores	Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy.	Participating in the management of the criminal enterprise.
Diosdado Cabello	Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy.	Using state power to protect illicit activities.

The Transitional Governance Plan

The removal of the Maduro regime has initiated a plan for a new governmental and economic structure, currently under direct U.S. oversight.

U.S. Interim Administration

President Trump announced that the United States would "run" Venezuela temporarily to ensure a "judicious transition." A proposed "transition group" has been formed to oversee this period, reportedly including:

• Secretary of State Marco Rubio

• Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth

• General Dan Caine

Designated Venezuelan Leadership

The internationally recognized Venezuelan opposition is prepared to assume control.

• María Corina Machado: The central figure of the resistance and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner, she has called for the immediate recognition of Edmundo González as the legitimate president.

• Edmundo González Urrutia: The opposition's candidate in the July 2024 election, who, according to opposition-monitored tallies, defeated Maduro by a more than two-to-one margin. Currently in exile in Spain, he has stated he is "ready to rebuild our nation."

Experts suggest a transitional government led by these figures would command the support of approximately 70% of the Venezuelan population.

Economic Reconstruction Strategy

The core of the transition plan is an "oil-first" reconstruction strategy aimed at rehabilitating the country's collapsed energy sector and wider economy.

• U.S. Investment: President Trump stated that large American oil companies would spend "billions of dollars" to repair crumbling infrastructure and restore production.

• Role of Majors: The plan involves a massive divestment of state control over Petróleos de Venezuela, S.A. (PDVSA), allowing firms like Chevron, and potentially Exxon and Halliburton, to take over operations.

• Key Projects: Chevron has maintained a presence in several key joint ventures vital to any recovery effort.

Oil Project	Region	Strategic Importance
Petropiar	Orinoco Belt	Upgrading extra-heavy crude; 30% Chevron interest.
Petroindependencia	Carabobo Area	Massive extra-heavy oil project; 34% Chevron interest.
Boscan Field	Zulia State	Historical heavy oil production site; operated by Chevron since 1946.
Loran Field	Offshore	Large gas field on the maritime border with Trinidad.

Key Challenges and Strategic Risks

The long-term success of the transition depends on overcoming profound legal, security, and economic obstacles.

International Legitimacy and Legal Disputes

The military operation has been almost universally condemned by international legal experts as a violation of international law.

• UN Charter Violation: Critics argue the raid breached Article 2(4) of the UN Charter, which prohibits the use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any state. Legal experts have characterized it as a "crime of aggression."

• Global Condemnation: Russia and China described the operation as "armed aggression." Regional powers like Colombia and Mexico condemned the unilateral use of force, fearing instability. The UN Secretary-General warned that the action set a "dangerous precedent."

• Trial Scrutiny: The legitimacy of the entire operation may hinge on the outcome of the trials in New York. A failure to provide definitive evidence of narco-terrorism could lead to the operation being viewed historically as a colonial-style resource grab.

Domestic Security and Stability

The primary domestic challenge is to dismantle the remnants of the old regime without igniting a civil war.

• "Chavista" Spoiler Networks: The new administration must neutralize armed non-state groups and loyalist networks embedded within state institutions.

• Security Sector Reform: The Venezuelan military, deeply corrupted by the drug trade, must be either reintegrated or dismantled. This is essential to prevent the rise of insurgent groups.

Economic Recovery Hurdles

Rebuilding Venezuela's economy, which contracted by 75% under Maduro, is a monumental task.

Capital Investment: The "oil-first" strategy relies on the willingness of private capital to enter a high-risk environment with deep systemic instability.

Infrastructure Decay: PDVSA has devolved from a respected oil major to a "ruined" entity. Analysts estimate it could take a decade and billions in capital to restore production to even half its historical capacity.

Humanitarian Crisis: The transition must address the crisis that has forced nearly 7.9 million Venezuelans to flee the country, the second-largest displacement crisis globally.

The Path to Collapse

The events of January 2026 are the culmination of decades of institutional decay rooted in the country's dependence on oil revenue.

Historical Event	Year	Strategic Significance
Overthrow of Pérez Jiménez	1958	End of military dictatorship; birth of the Punto Fijo Pact.
Nationalization of Oil	1976	Creation of PDVSA; centralization of rentier state wealth.
The Caracazo	1989	Violent protests against IMF reforms; collapse of state legitimacy.
Failed Coup Attempt	1992	Rise of Hugo Chávez as a national political figure.
Election of Hugo Chávez	1998	Collapse of the AD/COPEI duopoly and start of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Punto Fijo Era (1958–1998): A power-sharing arrangement between two major parties provided stability but fostered a "rentier state" model entirely dependent on oil revenues. Its collapse began with the 1989 Caracazo riots against neoliberal shock therapy.

Hugo Chávez Era (1999–2013): Chávez dismantled the Punto Fijo system, creating a "hybrid regime" that combined electoral mechanisms with authoritarian control. He used an oil windfall to fund massive social programs but degraded the technical capacity of PDVSA by replacing 18,000 professionals with political loyalists.

Nicolás Maduro Era (2013–2024): Inheriting a vulnerable state, Maduro oversaw a total economic meltdown following the 2014 oil price collapse. The regime devolved into a "narco-state," culminating in the fraudulent 2024 election that galvanized international recognition of the opposition.

Potential Incoming Leaders

The opposition is led by two highly visible figures with significant international standing.

María Corina Machado

Machado has emerged as the central figure of Venezuelan democratic resistance, earning global recognition for her efforts. Despite being barred from running in the 2024 election and forced into hiding, her influence has only grown.

Award	Year	Justification
Václav Havel Human Rights Prize	2024	For representing Venezuelans fighting for democracy.
Sakharov Prize	2024	Shared with Edmundo González for leadership of the democratic movement.
Nobel Peace Prize	2025	"For her tireless work promoting democratic rights...and for her struggle to achieve a just and peaceful transition from dictatorship to democracy.
Time 100 Most Influential	2025	Global recognition of political influence and resistance.

Edmundo González Urrutia

A former diplomat, González became the consensus candidate for the Unitary Platform in the 2024 presidential election after Machado was disqualified. He is widely considered the legitimate winner of that election and serves as the President-elect for the transitional government.

What Lies Ahead

The capture of Nicolás Maduro marks a definitive rupture in the Bolivarian project, transitioning Venezuela from a pariah "narco-state" to a territory under U.S. military administration. The long-term stability of this new order depends on the successful navigation of several critical factors: the legal legitimacy of the U.S. intervention, the comprehensive reform of the security sector, the stabilization of the economy through foreign investment, and the restoration of regional diplomatic ties.

While Operation Southern Spear has removed the primary obstacle to democratic restoration, it has introduced the immense challenge of foreign oversight and institutional rebuilding. The future of Venezuela now rests on whether the transition can establish a truly inclusive and democratic political order, moving beyond the "maximum pressure" tactics that defined the previous era.

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THE AUTHOR

Neps Guisona analyzes global finance, socioeconomic change, and geopolitics, translating complex structural trends into clear, actionable insights for leaders and decision-makers. A former university physics lecturer and U.S. Department of State international exchange scholar, his work bridges data, policy, and narrative to cut through noise and clarify what actually matters. Neps writes thought leadership pieces for The M&A Advisor in New York every second and fourth Thursdays of the month. Neps completed a certificate program in Conditions of War and Peace at Tokyo University in 2011.